ToolsFunding forecast
Kickstarter funding forecast.
Will your followers fund it?
Your pre-launch followers are the only backers you can count before you launch. This crowdfunding calculator takes how many you have, your average pledge and your goal, and shows how close your own people get you.
Follower forecast
From your followers
$25,600of $20,000
128% of your goal
Your own people could fund this, with room to spare.
Each dot is 5 followers. Blue ones back.
- Day one, on a typical curve
- $7,424 37% of goal
- Followers you need for the goal
- 782
- Likely range
- $12,000 to $36,000
- From your email list
- $0
- From beyond your audience
- $0
- You’d receive after fees
- —
Kickstarter’s figures: 32% of pre-launch followers back, against 17% of people who follow after launch (October 2025). Campaigns that reach 20% of their goal in the first 24 hours have an 80% chance of success (2022). Averages, not promises.
How the funding forecast works.
Three numbers, one honest answer.
- 01Your followers
The number under “Notify me on launch” on your pre-launch page. Kickstarter emails every one of them the moment you go live.
- 02How many back
Kickstarter says 32% of pre-launch followers go on to back, against 17% of people who follow once you’re live. Advanced mode lets you set your own rate.
- 03What each one pledges
Use the price of the reward most people will pick. Add-ons and higher tiers pull it up; a cheap entry tier pulls it down.
The forecast only counts people you already reach. Anything Kickstarter, press or ads bring is a bonus you can add in advanced mode, but plan as if it won’t come.
Worked examples.
Two campaigns, run through it.
600 followers, a $55 average pledge and a $25,000 goal. 32% of 600 is about 192 backers. At $55 each that is $10,560, or 42% of the goal. To fund from followers alone it needs about 1,421 followers, or a lower goal.
1,500 followers, a $90 average pledge and a $40,000 goal. About 480 backers at $90 is $43,200, or 108% of the goal. Funded on paper, with little margin: at a cautious 15% the same followers bring $20,250.
Kickstarter funding questions.
How many followers do I need before launching on Kickstarter?
Divide your goal by your average pledge, then by 0.32. For a $20,000 goal and an $80 average pledge that is about 782 followers, if your own people are going to carry it. Kickstarter’s 32% is an average, so aim higher if your followers came from ads or giveaways.
What happens if a Kickstarter doesn’t reach its goal?
Nobody is charged, Kickstarter takes no fees, and you receive nothing. You can relaunch as a new project.
What percentage of Kickstarters succeed?
42.74% of projects that launch reach their goal, from Kickstarter’s own stats page (January 2026 copy). Most that fail aren’t close: on average they raise about 10% of their goal. And 79% of projects that raise more than 20% of their goal go on to fund.
How should I set my Kickstarter funding goal?
Set it at what you need to deliver, after fees, and check it against what your own people can raise. A goal your followers can reach on their own gets you to “funded” early, which new visitors notice.
How do I get more backers on Kickstarter?
Grow the audience before launch: a pre-launch page, your own email list, and the communities you already belong to.
Is this forecast accurate?
It’s a rough answer to one question: can the people you already reach fund this? Kickstarter’s 32% is an average across projects. Your rate depends on who your followers are and how long ago they signed up, so read the range, not just the middle number.
Kickstarter funding stats.
Where the numbers come from.
- 32% of pre-launch followers back
- Kickstarter, “The anatomy of a great Kickstarter prelaunch page”, 29 Oct 2025. Followers who arrive after launch back at 17%.
- 42.74% of projects fund
- Kickstarter’s stats page, January 2026. The same page: 79% of projects that pass 20% of their goal fund.
- 20% on day one
- Kickstarter, 7 Oct 2022: projects that reach 20% of their goal in the first 24 hours have an 80% chance of success.
- About $88 average pledge
- Kickstarter’s stats page, January 2026: $9.41 billion across 106.9 million pledges. Our division.
- Failed projects raise about 10%
- Mollick, “The dynamics of crowdfunding”, Journal of Business Venturing, 2014, across 48,526 projects.
Ours, not published: the cautious 15% and warm 45% presets, the 3% email rate, the share from beyond your audience, and the shape of the funding curve. No independent source publishes these, so treat them as estimates.